Global trade is performing better than expected in 2026, with the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure helping offset the impact of energy disruptions and shipping difficulties linked to the conflict in the Middle East.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has raised its forecast for global merchandise trade volume growth this year to 3.9%, up from its earlier projection of 1.9%. The revised outlook, published on 8 October, reflects stronger-than-expected trade during the first half of the year, particularly in semiconductors, servers and equipment used to build and operate AI systems.
The figures highlight two very different forces shaping the global economy. Rising energy prices, disrupted shipping routes and tighter supplies of essential commodities are increasing costs for businesses and consumers. At the same time, technology companies continue to spend heavily on computing infrastructure, creating fresh demand for manufacturers and suppliers across international markets.
According to the WTO, AI-enabling products accounted for 47% of global merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026. Trade in these products rose 67% year on year, giving technology exporters an important boost despite wider geopolitical uncertainty.
However, the benefits are far from universal. Countries and industries connected to the AI supply chain are gaining ground, while energy-dependent economies, transport operators and parts of the international services sector face growing pressure.
The big question now is whether AI-related demand can continue supporting global trade if energy disruptions persist or technology companies begin to scale back their infrastructure spending.
AI INVESTMENT BECOMES A KEY DRIVER OF GLOBAL TRADE
Chips and servers lead the way
The rapid expansion of AI infrastructure has become one of the strongest sources of demand in international goods trade.
Technology companies are investing in advanced processors, memory chips, servers, networking equipment and data centres to support increasingly sophisticated AI applications. Much of this equipment crosses national borders several times during production, creating opportunities for chipmakers, component suppliers, electronics manufacturers and logistics providers.
The WTO reports that trade in AI-enabling goods increased by 67% year on year in the first half of 2026. That compares with growth of 16% in 2024 and 31% in 2025. These products accounted for approximately 14.8% of global merchandise trade during the first six months of this year.
The figures show that the AI boom is no longer just about software development or digital services. It is also influencing factory production, semiconductor manufacturing, freight movements and decisions about where companies build new industrial facilities.
For countries with established electronics and chip industries, the surge in demand has created a significant export opportunity.
There is, however, a risk attached to this rapid growth. If technology companies delay data-centre projects, reduce capital spending or question the returns on their AI investments, the effects could quickly spread through the businesses supplying the sector.
Asia captures a large share of the growth
Asia remains at the centre of the AI-related trade expansion because of its strong position in electronics manufacturing and semiconductor supply chains.
The WTO forecasts that merchandise exports from Asia will grow by 9.9% in 2026, the strongest projected increase among major regions. North American exports are expected to rise by 5.7%, while European merchandise exports are projected to edge down by 0.1%.
The region's advantage extends beyond the largest chipmakers and electronics exporters. Manufacturers of circuit boards, cooling systems, power equipment and other data-centre components can also benefit as investment in computing infrastructure increases.
Still, the gains are not shared equally across Asia. Countries with the right manufacturing capacity, skilled workforce, investment environment and access to international supply chains are better positioned to attract new business.
For exporters, the current boom presents a major opportunity. The longer-term challenge will be to turn that demand into sustainable growth rather than relying too heavily on a single industry.
ENERGY DISRUPTIONS PUT SUPPLY CHAINS UNDER PRESSURE
While AI demand is supporting global goods trade, the conflict in the Middle East continues to create serious challenges for energy markets and international shipping.
Disruptions affecting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have placed pressure on the movement of crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and fertilisers. The WTO estimates that Middle Eastern crude oil exports fell by around 24% in the first half of 2026, while LNG exports declined by 47%.
Despite these losses, alternative suppliers helped limit the fall in global crude oil exports to approximately 6% and LNG exports to around 1%.
The adjustment shows how international markets can respond when established supply routes come under pressure. Buyers have looked for alternative suppliers, cargoes have been redirected and some governments have relied on strategic reserves to manage immediate shortages.
Global container throughput has also remained relatively resilient. According to the WTO's October assessment, it increased by 3.9% year to date through July.
But keeping goods moving does not mean the disruption comes without consequences.
Longer shipping routes, higher insurance premiums, more expensive fuel and additional handling costs can all push up the price of imported goods. Businesses operating on tight margins may find it harder to absorb those expenses, while smaller importers can struggle to secure alternative suppliers at short notice.
The current situation offers a clear lesson: global supply chains can adapt to disruption, but that flexibility often comes at a price. The costs are also distributed unevenly, leaving some businesses and economies far more exposed than others.
SERVICES TRADE FACES A TOUGHER OUTLOOK
The picture is less encouraging for international services, where higher transport costs and travel disruptions are weighing on growth.
The WTO has cut its forecast for commercial services trade volume growth in 2026 to 3.3%, down from 4.8% in its March projection. The revision reflects more expensive transport, changes to shipping and aviation routes, and weaker international travel linked to the Middle East conflict.
Airlines are dealing with higher fuel bills and route changes. Shipping companies must account for security risks, delays and rising operating costs. Tourism businesses can also lose customers when journeys become more expensive or destinations are seen as difficult to reach.
Not every part of the services sector is facing the same pressure. Digitally delivered services and financial services have shown greater resilience, supported in part by investment in technology and the expansion of digital infrastructure.
That distinction matters because global trade involves much more than physical goods. Transport, tourism, software, finance and professional services all contribute to employment, investment and economic growth.
Strong demand for semiconductors and servers cannot fully offset weakness across the wider services sector. A more balanced recovery will depend on whether energy markets stabilise, transport conditions improve and technology-led growth spreads to other industries.
GLOBAL GROWTH CONTINUES, BUT THE BENEFITS ARE UNEVEN
The WTO expects global economic growth to reach 2.6% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027. Merchandise trade is projected to grow faster than overall economic output, supported by AI-related investment and the ability of supply chains to adjust to changing conditions.
However, regional differences remain significant.
The WTO expects merchandise exports from the Middle East to contract by 17.2% this year as conflict and disrupted trade flows take their toll. Europe's export outlook is also weaker, while Asia is expected to capture a substantial share of the gains from technology-related demand.
This uneven performance raises an important question: who is actually benefiting from the expansion in global trade?
Economies with advanced manufacturing industries and established positions in AI supply chains have a clearer path to new opportunities. Countries that depend heavily on energy exports or vulnerable transport routes face a more difficult environment.
Developing economies are also exposed to higher import costs for fuel, fertilisers and industrial materials. These expenses can strain public finances, discourage business investment and reduce household purchasing power.
The WTO's revised forecast is encouraging, but it does not remove these underlying risks. A slowdown in AI investment or a further escalation of the Middle East conflict could quickly alter the outlook.
WHAT IT MEANS FOR INDIA AND OTHER EMERGING MARKETS
India has an opportunity to benefit from rising demand for electronics, engineering products, industrial equipment and digital services.
As companies look to diversify their supply chains and expand computing infrastructure, Indian manufacturers and technology businesses could attract new investment and export orders. The growth of data centres may also create opportunities for suppliers of power equipment, cooling systems, construction services and related infrastructure.
However, India is not insulated from the risks. Higher crude oil prices can increase the country's import bill, put pressure on the rupee and raise costs for manufacturers, transport operators and consumers.
Other emerging economies face a similar balancing act. Countries that can expand their manufacturing capacity and strengthen their links with technology supply chains may gain from the shift in global investment. Those heavily dependent on disrupted energy exports or expensive imported inputs could face mounting pressure.
For policymakers, the challenge is to make supply chains more flexible while avoiding excessive dependence on a narrow group of industries or trading partners.
The wider lesson is that global trade can continue growing even when important parts of the economy are under strain. Strong headline figures may conceal very different realities for individual countries, sectors and businesses.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
AI infrastructure spending: Investment plans from major technology companies will help determine whether demand for chips, servers and data-centre equipment can maintain its momentum.
Energy shipments through Hormuz: Changes in shipping conditions could affect fuel prices, fertiliser availability and international freight costs.
WTO trade forecasts: Future updates will show whether the current strength in merchandise trade continues into 2027.
Asian export performance: Semiconductor and electronics shipments will indicate whether Asia can sustain its leading contribution to global trade growth.
Services trade recovery: Data on aviation, tourism and international transport will reveal how long higher energy costs continue to weigh on services exports.
Alternative supply chains: New sourcing arrangements and investment in logistics could help businesses reduce their exposure to future disruptions.
The outlook for AI investment: Any slowdown in technology spending could affect exporters and manufacturers that depend heavily on semiconductor and computing-equipment demand.
FACT CHECK METER
99% — OFFICIALLY SUPPORTED
Assessment based on the WTO's Global Trade Outlook and Statistics update published on 8 October 2026. The percentage is an editorial assessment, not an official WTO rating.
Confirmed details
The WTO raised its forecast for global merchandise trade volume growth in 2026 from 1.9% to 3.9%.
World merchandise trade volume grew by 3.5% in the first half of 2026.
AI-enabling goods accounted for 47% of merchandise trade growth during the first half, with trade in those goods rising 67% year on year.
Middle Eastern crude oil exports fell by approximately 24%, while LNG exports declined by 47% in the first half of 2026.
The WTO lowered its 2026 commercial services trade growth forecast from 4.8% to 3.3%.
Important distinctions
The 3.9% forecast refers to the volume of merchandise trade, not the total value of global trade in goods and services.
AI-related growth is concentrated in specific products and economies. Its benefits are not distributed evenly across the world.
Resilient trade does not mean energy disruptions have ended. Higher prices and transport costs continue to affect businesses.
Forecasts and estimates can change as economic conditions and geopolitical developments evolve.
AWX Verdict: The WTO's revised outlook supports the central finding that strong AI-related demand is helping global merchandise trade withstand energy and shipping disruptions. However, the recovery remains uneven, and a slowdown in AI investment or a further escalation of the Middle East conflict could weaken the outlook.
THE AWX BOTTOM LINE
Global trade is holding up better than expected in 2026, even as the conflict in the Middle East disrupts energy shipments and pushes up transport costs. The WTO's stronger forecast reflects the exceptional demand for semiconductors, servers and other equipment needed to build AI infrastructure.
The shift is changing the pattern of international commerce. Technology investment is creating opportunities for manufacturers and exporters, particularly in Asia, while energy-dependent economies and transport-intensive industries face mounting pressure.
But strong trade figures should not be mistaken for a broad-based recovery. Higher energy costs continue to affect businesses and households, and services trade is growing more slowly than previously expected.
Much will depend on two factors: whether AI investment maintains its momentum and whether global supply chains can continue adapting to geopolitical disruption.
The bottom line: AI is helping keep global goods trade moving, but it cannot erase the economic costs of conflict. Sustained growth will depend on continued technology investment, more reliable energy supplies and a wider distribution of the benefits across industries and economies.
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