Israel's political future remains uncertain following the October 27 general election, which failed to deliver a clear parliamentary majority to either Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing alliance or the opposition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot.
One politician attracting particular attention is Itamar Ben-Gvir, leader of the far-right Jewish Power party and the country's outgoing national security minister. His party continues to hold an important position within Netanyahu's political camp, potentially giving him considerable influence during coalition negotiations.
However, the election results have made the path to forming a new government more complicated. Whether Ben-Gvir retains his current position or gains further influence will largely depend on the alliances that emerge over the coming weeks.
This election is particularly significant because it is the first since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent wars involving Israel and armed groups across the region. National security, the government's handling of the conflict, economic pressures and Netanyahu's political future were all major issues during the campaign.
With neither major political camp reaching the 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority, coalition negotiations could take considerable time. Their outcome will determine not only who leads Israel but also how much influence far-right politicians such as Ben-Gvir will have over national policy.
BEN-GVIR'S POLITICAL POSITION COMES UNDER SCRUTINY
Itamar Ben-Gvir has established himself as one of the most prominent figures on Israel's far right. As leader of Jewish Power, he is known for his hardline approach to national security, strong support for Israeli settlements and uncompromising positions on Palestinian issues.
Before the election, opinion polls suggested that his party could improve its parliamentary position. Its message appeared to attract support beyond its traditional voter base, including younger and urban voters.
A Reuters report published on October 20 suggested that Jewish Power could win eight or more seats independently, potentially strengthening Ben-Gvir's bargaining position within Netanyahu's alliance.
Early projections following the October 27 election indicated that Jewish Power and Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism party could together secure around 13 seats within Netanyahu's bloc. That would make the far-right parties important players in any attempt to form a new government.
Still, having political influence does not guarantee a ministerial position. If Netanyahu struggles to secure enough support from his traditional allies, he may have to explore other coalition arrangements.
For Ben-Gvir, this creates an uncertain situation. He could remain a central figure in negotiations, but any government formed with centrist or opposition parties might reduce his influence or leave him outside the cabinet altogether.
ELECTION DEADLOCK LEAVES NETANYAHU FACING A TOUGH CHALLENGE
The election has exposed the difficulties facing Netanyahu's existing political alliance. Initial exit-poll projections placed his bloc and the opposition relatively close, with neither side reaching the 61 seats required to control the 120-member Knesset.
Reuters reported that the early projections pointed to a setback for Netanyahu, although the final parliamentary balance remained uncertain. Voter turnout reached 77.7%, the highest level in more than two decades, highlighting the importance of the election for the Israeli public.
As counting continued, the political picture remained complicated.
An Al Jazeera analysis published on October 28 reported that Netanyahu's bloc had 54 seats, while Eisenkot's opposition had 49. Arab-led parties, including Ra'am and the Joint List, held 17 seats combined at that stage of the count. These figures were provisional and did not represent the final certified results.
The Arab-led parties could therefore play an important role in determining which political camp forms the next government. However, several Jewish-led opposition leaders have rejected the possibility of forming a coalition with them, making Eisenkot's path to power more difficult.
Netanyahu's immediate priority is to secure enough parliamentary support to remain prime minister. Ben-Gvir, meanwhile, faces a delicate political calculation. His party could be essential to Netanyahu's plans, but a prolonged deadlock may force the prime minister to consider alternatives.
BEN-GVIR'S HARDLINE POLITICS REMAIN A SOURCE OF DIVISION
Ben-Gvir's political identity has largely been shaped by his positions on Palestinian issues, policing and national security. His statements and political activities have attracted criticism from Palestinian representatives, human rights organisations and several international governments.
During the election campaign, Jewish Power placed security at the centre of its message, promising a tougher response to threats against Israel. Reuters reporting suggested that this approach helped the party appeal to some younger voters and expand its support beyond its traditional base.
His supporters see him as a politician willing to take a firm stand on security matters. Critics, however, argue that his rhetoric and policies risk increasing tensions with Palestinians, deepening domestic divisions and making diplomatic efforts more difficult.
His future position in government could therefore have consequences beyond the coalition negotiations.
If Ben-Gvir retains a senior security role, he could continue to influence policing, internal security priorities and government policy in the occupied West Bank.
On the other hand, his exclusion from the next government could indicate a change in the balance of political power. However, that alone would not necessarily mean a major shift in Israel's broader approach towards Palestinians.
OPPOSITION PRESSURE AND ARAB PARTIES ADD TO COALITION UNCERTAINTY
The election has also brought renewed attention to the parliamentary position of Arab-led parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel.
An Al Jazeera report published on October 29 said that the United Arab List (Ra'am) and the Joint List had secured a combined 19 seats according to emerging results. The report also highlighted increased voter participation among Palestinian citizens of Israel.
Their parliamentary strength could prove important during government formation. Supporting an opposition-led coalition could potentially help challenge Netanyahu's continued leadership.
However, the opposition faces an internal political challenge. Several of its leaders have publicly ruled out forming a government with Arab-led parties, even though their support could prove crucial in reaching a majority.
Netanyahu and his allies have also questioned the prospect of relying on Arab-party support, adding further tension to an already complicated political situation.
Several outcomes remain possible: Netanyahu could form another government with his existing partners, the opposition could attempt to build an alternative coalition, or political leaders could negotiate a broader unity government. If all efforts fail, another election may eventually become necessary.
Each possibility would have different implications for Ben-Gvir. A renewed Netanyahu government could allow him to retain his influence, while a broader coalition might leave the far right with considerably less negotiating power.
WHAT BEN-GVIR'S FUTURE COULD MEAN FOR ISRAEL
Ben-Gvir's political future is closely tied to the bigger question facing Israel: what direction will the next government take?
If Netanyahu manages to remain in power with his traditional partners, Ben-Gvir could seek to retain or even strengthen his influence over national security and policing. Such an arrangement would likely preserve much of the hardline approach associated with the outgoing coalition.
A government led by Eisenkot or another opposition figure could bring a different political balance. In that scenario, Ben-Gvir and his party would likely move into opposition, where they could continue challenging government decisions and influencing public debate.
A national unity government would present another possibility. Bringing together parties with different views on security, domestic policy and relations with Palestinians could limit the influence of individual coalition partners.
The consequences would extend beyond Israel's domestic politics. The next government's decisions could affect relations with neighbouring countries, policies towards Palestinians and Israel's wider international standing.
Ultimately, this election is about more than competing political leaders. It is also a test of how Israel will be governed after years of conflict, security concerns and growing divisions within society.
RISKS AND KEY ISSUES TO WATCH
Far-right influence in government: Ben-Gvir's continued participation could shape national policing, internal security and policies towards Palestinians.
Coalition instability: If Netanyahu cannot secure a parliamentary majority, prolonged negotiations could delay the formation of a stable government.
Growing political divisions: Disagreements over Arab-party participation and the influence of far-right factions could deepen divisions within Israeli society.
Uncertainty over security policy: A change in government could affect decisions involving Gaza, the occupied West Bank and wider regional security.
Possibility of another election: If political parties fail to reach an agreement within the constitutional process, Israel could face another parliamentary election.
International diplomatic pressure: The next government's approach towards Palestinians and regional conflicts could influence its relationships with international partners.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Final election results: The official figures from Israel's Central Elections Committee will establish the precise parliamentary strength of each political party.
President Isaac Herzog's consultations: The president will consult political parties before assigning a candidate the responsibility of forming a government.
Netanyahu's coalition negotiations: The prime minister's ability to retain the support of Ben-Gvir, Smotrich and ultra-Orthodox parties will be crucial.
Ben-Gvir's ministerial future: Whether he retains a senior government position will provide an indication of how much influence the far right will have in the next administration.
Eisenkot's opposition strategy: His ability to secure support from Arab-led parties and other political groups could determine whether the opposition can form an alternative government.
The possibility of fresh elections: If no candidate succeeds in forming a government, Israel may have to return to the polls.
FACT CHECK METER
94% — STRONGLY SUPPORTED
Political uncertainty
Editorial assessment of available reporting as of October 30, 2026. This percentage is not a statistical probability.
CONFIRMED DETAILS
Israel held parliamentary elections on October 27, 2026.
Initial projections indicated that neither Netanyahu's bloc nor the opposition had secured a clear governing majority.
Ben-Gvir's Jewish Power party remained an important part of Netanyahu's political alliance.
Arab-led parties emerged with a potentially decisive position in parliament.
IMPORTANT DISTINCTIONS
Exit polls and interim vote counts should not be confused with final, certified election results.
Ben-Gvir's future ministerial position has not yet been determined.
His party's political influence does not automatically guarantee that he will remain national security minister.
AWX VERDICT
The headline accurately captures the uncertainty surrounding Ben-Gvir's political future. His party remains an important force within Netanyahu's political camp, but the election deadlock has made his continued role in government far from certain.
The final outcome will depend on the official election results and the negotiations between political parties over the formation of a new government.
THE AWX BOTTOM LINE
Israel's latest election has left Benjamin Netanyahu and his traditional allies facing a difficult political challenge. Although Itamar Ben-Gvir remains an influential figure on the far right, the absence of a clear parliamentary majority has made his future in government increasingly uncertain.
The coming weeks will be crucial. Coalition negotiations will determine whether Ben-Gvir retains a place in the government or returns to opposition politics. Either outcome could have implications for Israel's internal security policies, its approach towards Palestinians and its wider diplomatic relationships.
Netanyahu's priority is to find a workable parliamentary majority. Ben-Gvir's challenge is to protect the political influence his party has built. For Israel, however, the bigger concern is whether the next government can deliver stability after years of conflict and deep political divisions.
The election has not provided a clear answer about Israel's political direction. Instead, it has opened another difficult chapter in the country's struggle over leadership, power and the future role of the far right.
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