The balance of global power is shifting, and the effects are being felt far beyond the world’s major capitals. Competition between powerful nations is no longer limited to military strength. It now extends to trade, technology, energy supplies, financial influence and access to critical resources.
At the same time, regional conflicts and disagreements over international rules are putting pressure on the institutions designed to keep countries working together.
In September, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres warned that widening geopolitical divisions, ongoing conflicts, inequality and the rapid development of artificial intelligence were placing the international system under growing strain. He called for stronger cooperation and reforms to global institutions, warning that countries risked moving further apart when collective action was needed most.
The message reflects a broader reality: the rules and relationships that have shaped international affairs for decades are facing increasing pressure.
The United States remains a leading military, financial and technological power. China continues to expand its economic and strategic reach, while Russia remains a major force in international security. Meanwhile, countries such as India, Brazil, Türkiye and Saudi Arabia are working to strengthen their influence and preserve their freedom to make independent decisions.
The world is not simply splitting into two opposing camps. In many cases, countries are choosing their partners based on the issue at hand. A government might cooperate with one country on trade, another on defence and a third on energy or technology.
That flexibility creates opportunities, particularly for emerging economies. But it also makes international relations harder to predict and increases the risk of miscalculation.
The bigger question is whether major powers can manage their differences while keeping international cooperation alive, or whether competition will increasingly take priority over shared interests.
US–CHINA RIVALRY — THE FIGHT FOR GLOBAL INFLUENCE
Trade, technology and strategic supply chains
The rivalry between Washington and Beijing remains one of the biggest forces shaping global affairs. What began as a contest with strong economic dimensions has expanded into a broader struggle over technology, security and long-term strategic influence.
Semiconductors, artificial intelligence, advanced computing, critical minerals, electric vehicles and clean energy are all part of the competition. Maritime security is another major concern, particularly as both countries seek to protect their interests across strategically important regions.
For both governments, technological leadership is closely linked to economic strength and national security. That has led to tighter scrutiny of sensitive exports, foreign investment and supply chains that could become vulnerable during a crisis.
The impact is being felt well beyond the United States and China. Manufacturers across Asia, Europe and North America must adjust to changing trade rules, technology restrictions and growing pressure to find alternative suppliers.
For businesses, the choices are not straightforward. Moving production to another country can reduce dependence on a single supplier, but it can also increase costs and require years of investment. Companies relying on specialised components may find it particularly difficult to adapt when restrictions change with little warning.
Ultimately, the competition is about more than which country produces the most goods. It is also about who sets the technological standards, controls key infrastructure and influences the systems on which other economies rely.
Artificial intelligence becomes a strategic asset
Artificial intelligence is adding another layer to the US–China rivalry. Access to advanced chips, computing capacity, reliable energy and high-quality data is becoming increasingly important to economic growth and defence capabilities.
A September assessment by Security Council Report highlighted the growing role of AI in geopolitical competition and the challenges it presents for international peace and security. Differences between major powers over national interests and governance make it difficult to establish a common approach to managing the technology’s risks.
The implications reach far beyond Silicon Valley and China’s technology sector. AI can improve scientific research, industrial productivity and public services. It can also be used in cyber operations, military planning and large-scale information campaigns.
The concern is that the race to develop increasingly powerful systems could move faster than efforts to establish effective safeguards.
Governments therefore face a difficult balancing act: encouraging innovation and protecting national security while ensuring that AI development remains accountable and that countries continue to cooperate on shared risks.
RUSSIA AND THE WEST — SECURITY DIVISIONS REMAIN DEEP
Russia’s confrontation with Western governments continues to shape European security and international diplomacy. The war in Ukraine remains a major source of tension, while disputes over sanctions, military assistance and regional security have hardened divisions between Moscow and Western capitals.
For European governments, the conflict has reinforced the need to strengthen defence capabilities, increase military readiness and make energy supplies more resilient. These priorities come with financial costs, forcing governments to balance security spending against other demands, including healthcare, infrastructure and economic growth.
Russia, meanwhile, faces continuing economic and diplomatic challenges as it seeks to maintain its international influence under Western sanctions. Moscow has worked to deepen ties with non-Western partners, including China, while expanding commercial and political relationships with countries that have not adopted the full range of Western restrictions.
These developments show how geopolitical tensions can reshape trade, investment and diplomatic relationships even without direct military confrontation between the major powers involved.
The wider concern is what prolonged divisions could mean for international security. Cooperation on arms control, conflict prevention and other shared challenges becomes harder when trust between major powers continues to erode.
The risk of competing security blocs
Military alliances can discourage aggression by making the potential costs of an attack clear. But when rival blocs become increasingly suspicious of one another, the risk of escalation can rise, particularly when communication breaks down.
Countries close to areas of confrontation often face difficult choices about defence partnerships, military access and relations with neighbouring powers. Even governments far from the immediate conflict can feel the effects through higher energy costs, disrupted trade and changing investment flows.
Keeping diplomatic channels open is therefore essential, even when relations are strained.
Strategic rivalry may be difficult to avoid, but countries still need ways to prevent misunderstandings from turning into larger conflicts. Maintaining communication is not a sign that disagreements have disappeared; it is a practical step towards managing them.
THE UNITED NATIONS FACES A TEST OF CREDIBILITY
As global power becomes more widely distributed, questions are growing over whether international institutions adequately reflect today’s political and economic realities.
The United Nations remains the main international forum for addressing peace, security and cooperation. Yet disagreements among the permanent members of the Security Council can make decisive action difficult, particularly when a conflict involves their allies or strategic interests.
During the opening of the UN General Assembly’s 81st session in September, Secretary-General António Guterres called for Security Council reform. He argued that existing arrangements still reflect a world shaped by a different era and highlighted the lack of permanent African representation as a significant problem for the council’s legitimacy.
The debate is longstanding, but changing economic and political realities have given it renewed urgency.
Developing countries argue that their contributions to global production, trade and population deserve greater recognition in international decision-making. Many are also seeking more influence over institutions that shape development finance, lending and the rules governing the global economy.
Turning those demands into meaningful reform, however, is far from simple. Changes to the Security Council require broad agreement and complex approval procedures. Existing powers also have little incentive to give up influence.
This leaves a persistent gap between the demand for a more representative international system and the political difficulty of changing the institutions at its centre.
The challenge for the UN is not only to respond to individual crises but also to demonstrate that multilateral cooperation can still deliver results in a divided world.
EMERGING ECONOMIES WANT A BIGGER ROLE
India, Brazil and the rise of middle powers
The struggle for global influence is no longer confined to Washington, Beijing and Moscow. Countries such as India, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, Türkiye and Saudi Arabia are seeking a stronger voice in international affairs while protecting their ability to pursue independent policies.
Many of these countries have little interest in simply replacing one dominant power with another. Instead, they are taking a more flexible approach, building partnerships according to their economic, security and diplomatic priorities.
India, for instance, maintains important relationships with the United States and European countries while preserving longstanding defence and energy ties with Russia. It is also expanding economic engagement with a broader range of international partners.
Brazil has worked to strengthen its role in multilateral diplomacy while maintaining commercial relationships across different geopolitical groupings. Gulf economies are drawing on their energy resources, investment capacity and strategic location to expand their influence.
This approach can give middle powers greater leverage in negotiations. It can also make international diplomacy less predictable, as governments that cooperate on one issue may disagree sharply on another.
A June 2026 analysis by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argued that countries beyond the traditional major powers need a greater role in global governance, whether the goal is to preserve, reform or transform the existing system.
For these countries, the aim is increasingly to have a meaningful say in decisions that affect their security, economic growth and long-term development.
The Global South demands a stronger voice
For developing economies, intensifying competition between major powers brings both opportunities and risks.
Rivalry can attract investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, energy and technology. Countries with valuable natural resources or growing consumer markets may also gain bargaining power when several major economies compete for access.
But those opportunities can come with pressure to take sides. Sanctions, trade restrictions and technology controls may force governments and businesses to reconsider established partnerships, even when doing so carries significant economic costs.
Many developing countries also face persistent concerns about access to affordable finance, the distribution of revenues from critical minerals and the expense of adapting to climate change.
Their ability to benefit from a changing world order will depend on more than diplomatic positioning. Stronger regional partnerships, investment in domestic industries and coordinated negotiations on shared economic priorities will also matter.
A more multipolar world could spread influence across a wider range of countries. Whether that produces a fairer system will depend on how international rules are designed and applied.
ENERGY, CRITICAL MINERALS AND TRADE BECOME STRATEGIC TOOLS
Economic interdependence remains a defining feature of the global economy, but governments increasingly view it through the lens of national security.
Energy supplies, semiconductor components, shipping routes and critical minerals are now central to strategic planning. Governments are looking to reduce dependence on suppliers they consider unreliable, strengthen domestic production and establish alternative trading relationships.
The energy transition has become a particularly important part of this competition. The United States and China are pursuing different strategies for energy production, industrial growth and technological leadership. Their rivalry extends beyond oil and gas to solar panels, batteries, electric vehicles and the minerals needed to manufacture advanced technologies.
For resource-rich countries, this shift can create new opportunities to attract investment and strengthen their negotiating position. However, it can also leave them vulnerable to sudden changes in demand, trade policy or relations between major powers.
The challenge is to turn access to strategic resources into lasting economic benefits rather than becoming dependent on a narrow group of buyers or investors.
The economic cost of fragmentation
A global economy divided into competing economic systems could become more expensive and less efficient.
Companies may need to duplicate factories, secure alternative suppliers and meet different technical standards across markets. Governments may also increase subsidies and incentives to protect industries considered essential to national security.
Some diversification makes sense. Relying too heavily on a single supplier can leave businesses and countries exposed when political tensions disrupt trade.
But there is a difference between building resilience and dismantling the benefits of international cooperation. Excessive fragmentation could raise production costs, slow technological progress and create additional uncertainty for investors.
The challenge is to protect essential economic interests without making cross-border cooperation unnecessarily difficult or allowing commercial disagreements to become prolonged geopolitical disputes.
WHAT THE CHANGING WORLD ORDER MEANS FOR GLOBAL MARKETS
Financial markets are becoming increasingly sensitive to geopolitical developments because political decisions can quickly affect commodity prices, currencies, interest rates and investment flows.
A new round of tariffs can change corporate earnings expectations. Sanctions may restrict access to energy and raw materials. Military escalation can increase demand for assets viewed as safer, while pushing up shipping costs and insurance premiums.
Emerging markets can be particularly exposed when geopolitical uncertainty coincides with a stronger US dollar, higher borrowing costs or volatile commodity prices. Countries dependent on imported energy or external financing may face additional pressure.
For investors, this means looking beyond traditional economic indicators. Trade relationships, sanctions, political stability and access to critical resources can all influence market performance.
Still, intensifying geopolitical competition does not automatically mean a global economic crisis is inevitable. Countries continue to trade, companies continue to invest, and governments retain reasons to cooperate when their interests overlap.
The outcome will depend on whether major powers can keep their rivalry within manageable limits or whether tensions begin to undermine the economic and diplomatic connections that support global growth.
For businesses, the priority is to understand where their vulnerabilities lie and prepare for disruption without assuming that every political dispute will lead to a major crisis.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
US–China relations: Watch for changes in tariffs, semiconductor restrictions, technology policy and negotiations over trade.
Russia–West relations: Follow developments in Ukraine, sanctions policy, defence commitments and diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions.
United Nations reform: Look for concrete proposals to change Security Council representation and improve participation in global decision-making.
Middle-power diplomacy: Track how India, Brazil, Türkiye and other emerging economies respond to competing demands from major powers.
AI governance: Watch for international agreements addressing AI safety, military applications, cybersecurity and access to advanced computing.
Critical minerals and energy: Monitor new supply agreements, export restrictions and investments in alternative sources of strategic materials.
Global trade and markets: Follow changes in shipping costs, commodity prices, investment flows and business confidence as geopolitical risks evolve.
FACT CHECK METER
94% — Strongly supported analysis
Status: Supported, with qualifications.
This score represents an editorial assessment of the support for the article’s central themes. It is not an independently calculated probability or a guarantee that every claim is correct.
Confirmed details
On 22 September 2026, UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned about widening global divisions and called for stronger international cooperation and Security Council reform.
The UN General Assembly’s 81st session took place amid concerns about geopolitical competition and the effectiveness of multilateral institutions.
AI, advanced computing, semiconductors, energy and critical minerals have become increasingly important to strategic competition between major powers.
Policy analysis published in 2026 has highlighted the growing influence of middle powers and the need for broader participation in global governance.
Important distinctions
A shift towards a multipolar world does not mean US influence has ended or that power is now distributed equally.
Countries do not necessarily belong to permanent opposing blocs. Their partnerships often vary across trade, defence, energy and technology.
Economic fragmentation and future military escalation are potential risks, not inevitable outcomes.
Meaningful reform of international institutions remains uncertain because it depends on political agreement among countries with different interests.
AWX VERDICT: The evidence supports the assessment that global power competition is intensifying and putting pressure on international institutions. Whether this leads to a more balanced multipolar system or deeper global fragmentation remains an open question.
THE AWX BOTTOM LINE
The global balance of power is changing, but the transition is not simply a contest to determine which country will replace the current leading powers. The United States and China remain central to the struggle for influence, Russia continues to shape international security, and emerging economies are pushing for a greater say in decisions that affect their futures.
The competition now stretches across defence, trade, energy, artificial intelligence and global governance. These areas are increasingly connected, allowing a dispute in one sector to create consequences for businesses, investors and governments around the world.
For companies and investors, the priority is to prepare for uncertainty without treating every geopolitical rivalry as a sign of an impending crisis. For governments, the challenge is to defend national interests while keeping channels for cooperation open.
The United Nations and other multilateral institutions face their own test. They must adapt to changing power relationships while maintaining credible rules and practical ways to resolve disputes.
The next world order will be shaped not only by which countries accumulate the most influence, but also by how they use it. Whether the coming years bring a more balanced international system or deeper divisions will depend on the willingness of major powers to find common ground, even when their interests differ.
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